But it will still be a Question, whether the Specie was not diminish'd before the Year 1645; since the Beginning of the Coinage goes much further back. To which I answer, that is is well know that our Trade at 1645 was but of about 100 Years Date, and therefore I shall say it was but in its Youth. And as it is a Circumstance, always attending the Beginnings of foreign Trade in every Nation, to have the Balance in their Favour; because such Nations having no Mines, cannot have much Money amongst them,(28*) on which Account their Produce and Manufacturers must needs be low in their Price: And as this is the chief, if not the only Circumstance which lays the Foundation of the Exportation of the Commodities of any Country; so this being then our Case, must needs be the Means of increasing the Gold and Silver amongst us, from the Time of Reforming the old Specie by Queen Elizabeth, to the Time whence I begin that great Increase of the People. But further to establish this Point, give me Leave again to make use of Dr Nichols's Authority in the beforecited Place, where he says, "To consider further how mightily this Nation of ours hath increased within a Century or two, notwithstanding the many civil and external Wars, and those vast Drains of People that have been made into our Plantations since the Discovery of America." If the Nation did really increase so mightily within a Century or two, and it be an undeniable Fact that the Prices of Things advanced too during that Time, we must during that Time have had an Increase of the People and Prices of Things, as hath been before reason'd on this Point. Therefore I think it appears more than probable, that the Specie coin'd as above, was not diminish'd, but really circulating amongst us about the Year 1688.
Let us now see how different the State of the Nation, and consequently the Trade thereof, now is in this Respect.
The Cash of the Nation is by most People, so far as I can learn, esteem'd to be about 10 or 12 Millions. But Erasmus Phillips endeavours to she that it is(29*)L. 15,000,000
And in his Preface, he says, the National Debt is 53Millions, a sixth Part of which, he says, Foreigners are generally supposed to have; which, allowing the Debt to be now somewhat lessen'd, can hardly be put lower than(30*)L. 8,000,000.
The Balance of Specie, which we may then call our own, will be L. 7,000,000.
That is 11 millions and a half less than we had about the Year 1688.
Now whether this great Diminution of our Species be attributed chiefly to the vast Expence of King William and Queen Anne's Wars, as without doubt it must in a great degree; or that the balance of Trade since that Time hath been against us, and contributed to this Diminution; it's evident the State of the Nation, being now so vastly different in respect of real Specie we can call our own, must have a malignant Influence on our Trade; whilst the Prices of most Commodities and Necessaries of Life, by the Operation of Paper-Effects, are maintain'd at higher Rates than those Things bore before the Year 1688.
Therefore I conclude, Since we have so much less Specie we can call our own, and such a vast Value of Paper-Effects operating as Money, and are indebted to Foreigners such a great Sum, the Interest of which they are continually drawing from us, besides a vast national Debt; that the State of Trade is as much worse than it was in the Year 1688, as the State of the Nation is so: For the Relation between these are such,if rightly consider'd, that they ought to be esteem'd as but one and the same Thing, notwithstanding we seem to distinguish them by different Names.
Another Point, whence I argue that the Trade of this Nation is in a worse State than it was about the Year 1688, is the different Increase of the People since that Time to the Increase in the preceding 44 Years.
In the Year 1730, there were 17118 Christen'd and 26761Buried.
In 1689, (which I stopt at,) 14777 Christen'd and 23502Buried.
The difference increased is, Christen'd 2341 and Buried 3259, or about 1/7 Part of the Number of the Year 1689; which shews the Increase of the People since that Time to be about so much: Which being so far short of the preceding Period of 44 Years, shews that our Trade is in as much worse State, as the Increase is less in near the same Length of Time.
But the great Increase, in the before-mention'd 44 Years, will be greatly ascribed to the great Number of French Refugees, that came and settled here in that Period. But I think they could not have found a Settlement with us, if our Trade had not been in a very flourishing State, without improving so much waste Land as their Numbers required, and thereby reducing the Prices of our Produce and Manufactures in such Proportion: Whereas it's certain no such Fall happen'd, and therefore it follows we had so much greater Exports of our Produce and Manufactures, as were equal to the Imployment so great an Addition of Hands did require to support them. And the great Quantity of Money coin'd in this Period of doubling, which was perhaps equal to all we had before circulating amongst us, shews that this was the Case, since nothing but so much greater Exports than Imports, could have brought us such a Balance of Gold and Silver, or have supported the Prices of Things.